Russia has moved to classify key demographic statistics following a dramatic collapse in its birth rate, which has plunged to levels not seen since the late 18th or early 19th century, according to a leading Russian demographer.

For decades, Russia has been experiencing a plunging birth rate and population decline, which appears to have worsened amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine—with high casualty rates and men fleeing the country to avoid being conscripted to fight.

Projections estimate that Russia’s population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades. The United Nations has predicted that in a worst-case scenario, by the start of the next century, Russia’s population could almost halve to 83 million.

  • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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    12 days ago

    …Wow.

    So what’s the tankie angle to this? From that perspective, the war is objectively awful for Russia, even if all the stated war goals are true.

    • resipsaloquitur@lemm.ee
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      12 days ago

      The tankie angle is that it’s NATO’s fault. Would never have happened if mean old west hadn’t invaded Ukraine and genocided Russian-speakers who are ethnically and linguistically identical to Ukrainians but also totally different and superior but also must be defended by daddy Vladdy.

      And also Ukraine is an inseparable part of Russia, especially Crimea. Khrushchev was only kidding when he gave Crimea to Ukraine, which isn’t a real country.

      And the west totally broke its verbal promise that no one’s ever heard to never allow another country into NATO. But The Budapest Memorandum wasn’t worth the paper it was written on. For some reason.

      You just don’t understand Russian history. Russia has a very long memory. When it comes to grievances. Theirs.

      You’re just russophobic.

      • SkyezOpen@lemmy.world
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        12 days ago

        I don’t think I’ve ever gotten one of them to even acknowledge the Budapest memorandum.

        Though I do like to point out that they’re the biggest western chauvinists ever if they genuinely think NATO somehow forced putin into emptying Russia’s soviet stocks of vehicles and ammo in the most disastrous invasion in recent history.

        • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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          12 days ago

          Right? It makes Afganistan (the Soviet and US one) look like nothing. A calamity doesnt even begin to describe it.

      • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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        12 days ago

        Ugh, you said that way too well.

        Still (again, rolling with the reasoning), it’s an existential problem, no matter who’s fault it is or how much of a victim they are or how much fatalism they’ve accepted…

    • NOT_RICK@lemmy.world
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      12 days ago

      So what’s the tankie angle to this?

      “Sure this news is bad, but what about this non sequitur?”

    • rustyfish@lemmy.world
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      12 days ago

      Tankie angle: Any nation that becomes wealthy has the issue of declining birth rates. Putin is just soooooooooo great of a leader, he made every single Russian a trillionaire over night. Everything is better under Putin. Why can’t you see the objective truth? Russia is better than any other nation. That’s why I live in Europe and never intend to return. I don’t see the problem here. Banned for being a reactionary pig. Give money to me.

    • GreenKnight23@lemmy.world
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      12 days ago

      because all wars are a war of attrition. the country with the largest military or the deepest pockets always wins.

    • Ledericas@lemm.ee
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      11 days ago

      depends on where its decling, if its only like elderly left and the young not reproducing thats would be a problem.

  • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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    11 days ago

    That’s not unique to Russia. Birth rates in developed nations have been plummeting across the board. The only reason the US was escaping it and hanging out around replacement was because of immigration, and, well, I don’t know if you’ve been keeping up with the news lately, but it seems like that’s going to change.

    There’s lots of reasons driving demographic collapse, but I don’t think war is one of them. South Korea is usually heralded as the shining example of demographic collapse because their birth rate is the worst by far, and it generally seems to be the case that as economies becomes more “advanced”, women have less time and supports to focus on motherhood, and so just choose not to have kids. I put advanced in scare quotes because it seems to me that a truly advanced economy wouldn’t footgun itself with rapid demographic collapse. Not to say that the trend shouldn’t be towards a smaller population that will tax the Earth’s resources less, but the way to get there safely for civilization isn’t by falling off a cliff.

    • JackbyDev@programming.dev
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      11 days ago

      I have thought long and hard about having a kid. The only positives are some happy moments, my parents getting a grandbaby, and having someone to help make sure I don’t get taken advantage of when I’m old (I believe it is my financial responsibility to plan for myself but I know my brain may decline). Then I think of the negatives. The money, the loss of sleep, the loss of autonomy, the loss of time, it’s just all so so much. My life would get substantially worse.

      Then I think about adopting someone older than a baby, and it’s an interesting idea, I don’t feel a need to spread my genes, but it’s the same thing. Then I think maybe adopt a teenager, it’s not as long of a commitment. But by this point it’s such a nasty equation of tradeoffs and I never want a child to be thought of that way. Plus, I really don’t think I have the heart or patience for adopting an older child.

      So the only real thing I feel like I’m missing is having someone to make sure I’m not a victim of elder abuse. I’ll just try to keep getting you get friends and keep them close. I’m 33. My youngest close-ish friend is about 22. If I keep making young people my friends then hopefully if I’m in the nightmare scenario of mental decline and my spouse has passed that one of them can check up on me when we’re both old. That seems less shitty than adopting a child for that reason.

      • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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        11 days ago

        I’m a parent. I’m not going to try and sell you on having a kid; don’t do it unless you know you want to. What I’m about to say isn’t trying to sell you on parenthood or making apologetics, but just sharing my own personal experience having thought of almost all the same things you’ve thought and then crossed the bridge anyway. I figure that parenting really isn’t about what you get out of it, and you do get stuff out of it- the love, the experience, the ups and downs, someone to depend on and who depends on you. In a lot of ways it’s a microcosm of the human social experience in that you much more personally experience the things that make up existing with others in a society. You don’t necessarily need kids the same way you don’t necessarily need a significant other or a circle of friends, it’s just that humans are, by our nature, social creatures, and we’re almost always better off with richer social connections in our life than not. Yeah, you definitely do lose stuff; take autonomy, it’s kind of similar to how you lose a certain degree of autonomy when you get into a serious long term relationship, only you really shouldn’t break up with your kids if they piss you off. If that tradeoff isn’t for you, that’s cool!

        Everybody’s different, but my kids have motivated me to get involved in politics (beyond just voting) at the local level and try to start planting trees whose shade I may never get to enjoy. It made me think hard about the kind of world that we’re leaving to them, and about what responsibility I have as a parent to do what I can to make that world a better place. I don’t expect anything from them; if they move away to live their life, that’s fine, I trust them to use their best judgment and live their life how they see fit, and just knowing that they’re depending on us to do everything we can for them has really motivated me to think differently about things in ways that I believe are generally positive. In case you’re curious about it, you could always try hosting an exchange student. It’s about the lowest commitment way to be a parent to someone, especially since they’re typically older teenagers. If you hate their guts, you can always ask the host organization that they be placed elsewhere. I’ve hosted I think eight exchange kids, and in hindsight, I don’t regret a single instance, even for the kids we didn’t get along with and had to place elsewhere.

  • Lit@lemmy.world
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    12 days ago

    If they classify it, it means it’s a lot worse. Ukraine should send more steriliser over to russia.

  • iAvicenna@lemmy.world
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    12 days ago

    yea putin, fuck the world up and then complain that people are not making kids. we will all die in our own filth when the infrastructure collapses and you can wipe your ass with all that money and power

    • wpb@lemmy.world
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      11 days ago

      You’re literally rooting for the extinction of an ethnicity. Don’t conflate a people with their government. The folks in the Twin Towers did not deserve to die, regardless of all the horrible things their goverment has done. The folks at the October 7th festival did not deserve to die, regardless of the horrible things their government has done. Russians do not deserve to go extinct, regardless of the horrible things their government has done. Please try to keep your genocidal tendencies in check.

    • Ledericas@lemm.ee
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      11 days ago

      he would probably send 70 more million before he admits defeat, probably not. as long as men keep going to the meat grinder he doesnt care.

        • Bruncvik@lemmy.world
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          11 days ago

          I was permabanned from r/worldnews for this, due to racism, so I’m risking the same here. But there is a theory among armchair historians–which I tend to agree with–that Russians had been targets of regressive selective breeding for the past 450 years. Those who display any kind of individualism or independence (mainly educated, intellectuals, etc) have been selectively eliminated from the gene pool: via exile (best case scenario), or through prisons, labour camps or executions. After centuries of this, the share of independently thinking Russians in Russia is far lower than that of native population in Western European countries.

          This is very prominent in science and technology: many of the top inventors weren’t ethnic Russians, but were born or had ancestry in countries that have been under Russian dictate (and regressive evolution) for a much shorter time period. Sergei Korolev, the father of Russian space program was ethnic Hungarian. Russia “boasts” only 15 Nobel laureates in STEM fields since 1917, and only one of them (Nikolay Semyonov) was an ethnic Russian who wasn’t in exile.

          All this helps to explain why Russians are so passive in the face of authority. It also points at the fallacy of thinking that we can push them towards accepting western civilization and democracy in the short term. It will take a very long time and a lot of effort to bring them to the moral ideal of Western Europe.

          • Dr. Moose@lemmy.world
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            11 days ago

            I agree but not in genetic sense but more of a cultural sense imo.

            I grew up in Eastern Europe and witnesses soviet collapse and culture shift myself. It went from this obedient “no my problem” passive anger and misery to a society that actually cares for each other and is warm and optimistic which only started to regress recently because of fucking ruskies again.

            It’s so frustrating to see this great evil plague the world and pretend that it’s “1 bad putin” when the entire culture has been morphed into facilitating and growing this disgusting evil like rotting bread grows mold.

          • Ledericas@lemm.ee
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            10 days ago

            they have been through centuries of dictatorships, so they technically dont know any better, and its also indoctrination.

            i avoided that sub, after gaza/israeli conflict begin after catching a temp ban in '23. too much israeli bots were astrouturfing the subs, and banning people, and your comments are easy misconstrued there.

    • 5gruel@lemmy.world
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      11 days ago

      Oh we are now upvoting posts that condemn a whole culture as evil. Very classy Lemmy.

      • TronBronson@lemmy.world
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        11 days ago

        Evil like raping your subordinates on the battlefield or evil like kidnapping children and cultural genocide? Or evil like sit on your hands and allow your rulers to destroy you and world security for hundreds of years?

        • 5gruel@lemmy.world
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          11 days ago

          Great example, I wouldn’t call the whole of german culture evil because of the third Reich.

  • andybytes@programming.dev
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    11 days ago

    It used to be if a nuclear bomb went off, all planes would be grounded. Now, they’re going to use small yield nuclear weapons, but we know about the escalation ladder, so regardless if it’s a tiny nuke, it’s a nuke. Things just start or continue to escalate while plane companies are now getting nuke insurance because they’re still going to fly planes as the nukes are shooting. I don’t know if you got a… Entopic… pregnancy… like the pregnancy that gets stuck in your… phleopian tube… or something… if you could actually just go to a doctor and have that dealt with… you know, because… the pregnancy is not viable… and it’s most likely gonna kill you. I mean if I was a gal I’d say hell no. And honestly if I was educated and I had money I’d be out of here. If you Google mass shootings the violence project, you’ll see that a lot of the mass shooters, their motivations were economic issues. And that kind of explains a lot of this right wing violence being done by 20-something-year-olds. Young, dumb and full of cum, and also barefoot and pregnant. There’s also, I guess, studies that say that younger women are dating older men because they’re more mature, but I really think it’s just because their wallets are more mature and who could really blame the women? These kids live in these horrible situations with nothing to live for working at Mickey D’s as ungrateful boomers come in and scream at them because their fries are cold. We’re just going back in time as the boomers just fucking gaslight us, as they lived in the most economically prosperous time, you know? Hedonistic, arrogant, middle manager, PhD, magical thinking ladder pulling pigglet whatever the fuck’s. Always telling you’re overreacting. But just wait, once we get there, we’ll get to that point. Were it eventually will click, and you’ll see a fear in their eye, and possibly a tear. Zippty doo dah zippy ehh my oh my what a wonderful day.

    • ZMoney@lemmy.world
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      11 days ago

      Could you please finish your manifesto? I want to know what happens at the end. Do we mass shoot all the boomers?