I know people out there who have invested a lot in gold under the belief that in the event of like complete societal collapse or hyperinflation, they could use it for purchasing.
I have the hunch it’s a scam, but I haven’t learned enough monetary theory, business, or economics to understand why.
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It is not as stable as most currencies and market etfs (I can’t remember the right term, but stuff like VOO) generally have more reliable and higher returns than gold (ie XAU) over the long run
VOO started about 15 years ago. Over it’s life:
This is not specific investing advice for anyone here. I cannot offer that without knowing your specific situation and I charge for that, and once I give the advice you’ve paid for you’ll think I overcharged because it’s really simple (but reliable).
When the world collapses, nobody’s going to care about gold.
Stock up on bottlecaps instead.
As a person who has an abnormal number of bottlecaps for hobby reasons, thank you for making me feel rich! Also, why would anyone else want these?
I think they’re referencing the game Fallout where bottlecaps are used as currency
It’s almost certainly a joke but bottlecaps in a post civilization society would make a pretty decent currency, more so than gold.
They’re light, easy to carry, hard to reproduce and therefore scarce. They’re also useless for anything else. So if you happened to have a lot of caps laying around they might find their way to becoming a currency.
Gold is heavy, requires a lot of work to make it useful as a standard, and has other practical uses. Caps are actually better.
Yeah but making them isn’t complicated just medieval smelting is needed which is basically the iron ages
It’s the crimping and the precision shape that’s hard to replicate, you need a press.
And that would be doable, realistically. Though there’s a bit of plastic on the bottom that would be quite difficult to replicate.
The point is they’re only useful as a currency. And really only to a society that can’t really make much. If society advances again to the point where a used bottlecap can be replicated, other systems will already have been established to make it less attractive.
I think they’re talking about plastic bottle caps.
The caps in fallout are not plastic they’re soda bottles from the 1960s-80s.
We homebrewers will be the thousandaires of the end times!
I mean, considering the fact that numerous pre-modern cultures relied on (diluted) alcohol as their main drink since water was too dirty to drink safely without mixing it in with wine/beer/whatever, and that a lot of people would use alcohol to cope with te hard times that might actually be a good skill to have in the scenario of large amounts of infrastructure becoming unusable. (modern knowledge of germ theory & boiling drinking water would probably make it a lot more useless, but I bet you could find people willing to trade supplies with you for a nice drink.
Because patrolling the Mojave almost makes you wish for a nuclear winter.
Well, for one thing, the supply of googly eyes will run out and you will have to adapt.
You’re forgetting the crows that like shiny things
Make a bunch of shiny trinkets, train a gigantic murder of crows to steal food & supplies and attack on command, profit.
If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it.
Investing in gold someone else holds is silly. Having a few ounces stashed away is just illiquid asset that should be a hedge against inflation.
You can have liquid, premium-free gold by buying an ETF/ETC. Whether you hold it or not is irrelevant in case of hyperinflation. Stashing it away may be useful only if you like to touch it I guess
Executive Order 6102
If it can be taken from you with the stroke of a pen, then it isn’t yours. Gold financial products are useful speculative assets but not for calamity insurance.
ETFs may be useless in case of a calamity (in that case I’d stash bullets and canned food, not gold) but they’re useful for hyperinflation scenarios because the financial system keeps working. See Turkey and Argentina
I think what they’re saying is that in a hyperinflation scenario, it is an option for the government to seize the physical gold backing the financial products people hold in order to continue paying to run the government now that fiat is worthless and they are having trouble with that.
Gold you have buried in your basement, they will have to work a little harder to get.
I understand but inflation is actually good for the debt of governments since there’s a surplus of money (they pay on the nominal value) so it’s unlikely they’d have to scrap personal gold in order to function.
Anyway that’s just my two cents and I may be totally wrong. I’m not an economist
I looked up some stuff about Argentina’s financial crisis since you mentioned it before, and it looks like they actually did something a bit like what I’m talking about, directly appropriating the valuable assets they could in an effort to keep being able to function:
In addition to the corralito, the Ministry of Economy dictated the pesificación; all bank accounts denominated in dollars would be converted to pesos at an official rate. Deposits would be converted at 1.40 ARS per dollar and debt was converted on 1 to 1 basis.[69]
There’s some indication that this also applied to financial products:
As noted above, a number of U.S. investors have filed ICSID arbitration claims against the government of Argentina. Most of these investors consider the January 2002 pesification of dollar-denominated contracts, and/or the ex post facto prohibition on contracts linked to foreign inflation indices, to be an effective expropriation of their investments
I can’t specifically confirm this included gold held on paper, but I think it probably would have.
As for the plausibility of this sort of thing happening in the US, in addition to the actions of Roosevelt mentioned by @diablexical@sh.itjust.works, the main trigger for Nixon abandoning the gold convertibility of US dollars was France attempting to physically withdraw the gold they had stored in US banks, which they didn’t want to allow.
Thank you for your clarification, very informative
Well, you can.
The only gold worth a damn is the stuff in your hands. Gold speculation is not a hedge against financial crises
Let’s be honest though, in a complete societal collapse (not likely to ever happen) if I had sandwiches, and you had a block of gold. Your good is worthless unless someone else is willing to trade for it. You come with gold, say it’s worth something, I say meh, maybe 15 pounds for one sandwich, you say no way, you grow weak through starvation I say 20 pounds, you say no way, grow weaker and I say 30 pounds, you say I only had 15, you die of starvation and I bury your currently worthless gold somewhere in case it eventually has value again.
So zoidberg made out like a bandit!
The whole time I just pictured myself having a bunker full of in ground freezers with hidden solar panels and they are just chock full of shite gas station sandwiches to ensure they last 50 years. (Hopefully we sort out our agriculture game in a few months or we are just going to all die of malnutrition)
True, in total collapse gold isn’t worth much. However, total collapse isn’t very likely. Across all civilization collapses, it’s never come to that point
Also sandwiches are a terrible way to store value.
Also sandwiches are a
terribletasty way to store value.Yeah, bit of land staked off, 5 goats, 5 cows, 15 chickens, fencing and 100 acres of agriculture would do you much better.
Wait, what kinda sammich we talkin’?
Toasted thin brioche with garlic butter, light smather of roasted pepper jelly, prescuttio wrapping muenster cheese topped with heated salami and pepperoni, so it is moistened by the juices of the Italian meats but stills holds the crunchy, airy feeling in the bite.
Pickle wedge on the side. Choice of side
A nice M.L.T. - a mutton, lettuce, and tomato sandwich when the mutton is nice and lean and the tomato is ripe…
You’re probably not the only one out there. Maybe someone else would see it differently and pound your head in for less. That frees up the sandwich and anything else in your possession.
If you invest in gold that is not physically in your posession, then yes.
If society breaks down, who is going to honor that piece of paper that claims you own gold in some banks vault? You don’t even know where that gold actually is…
I am not sure how useful owning the actual precious metals would be in a societal collapse. It’s going to lose value quickly. It would take probably 5-10 years before some rich rober baron decides to make a market for it where it gets a decent trade value again. An Oz of gold is going to mean a lot less to me than box of bullets or some chickens, unless I can find someone to give me a ton of that stuff in trade before my family starves I am going to take the chickens.
Much more useful in a hyper inflation scenario.
In a societal collapse, it will be rather worthless, yes. But in an economic collapse, it probably retains more value than paper money or stock options. Property, of course, is premium. If you can uphold claims to it…
Also a in a societal collapse markets will reestablish themselves relatively quickly so if you have a trade good like gold, copper, or silver you could probably use it as a solid liquid asset. Mind you I’d say a 1-2 year minimum for markets to reestablish themselves so you have to survive that first. Also you will be at the mercy of the merchants and tradesmen regardless.
Short answer: Yes.
Long answer: Yes. Tune all of that nonsense out… But don’t fret if you own a tiny bit, either.
I kind of like Warren Buffet’s ramblings on it:
Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.
You could take all the gold that’s ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that’s worth at current gold prices, you could buy all – not some – all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take?
Gold has utility. Every circuit board uses gold.
Same with germanium.
And boron.
…I was gonna say I wouldn’t want a giant cube of boron. But actually, I kinda do?
If you find out where you can get a quality boron cube, would you see if they have any beryllium spheres?
only a complete bidiot or bignoramus wouldn’t
I feel like you could still do very well in life if you controlled literally all the gold in the world, but also he is Warren Buffet and my current wallet is one that I found on the ground, so I am willing to defer to the experts here.
(NB, the wallet was empty, I’m no savage)
I’m acquiring a little gold. Not a lot, but enough.
What’s enough? When my family was escaping persecution, they managed to travel under the cover of night and stayed in people’s barns and homes during the day. They planned and managed these arrangements via transactions using gold coins, links or pieces of jewelry, or other relatively universal valuables. They also got away a couple of times using the same goods to bribe authorities.
A small number of generations of my family dealt with being told that their money or credit was devalued due to their religion, profession, or relationship to public figures. In those instances, the family members who fled survived, and most of the ones who didn’t flee died.
I don’t know that I have much faith in my ability to flee anything, so I’m not investing that much time or money into acquiring gold things. Found some old watches from my grandparents/great-grandparents that claim to have gold in them. Have a couple of my own little things and jewelry I’ve given my wife. All just things when the time to survive arrives. Which it might not ever.
I hope this somewhat answered your question.
If it’s not too personal, I’m curious where your family escaped from?
Different parts of the family tree, but pre-Soviet Ukraine and Poland.
The Ukrainian family was erased over a period spanning from pre-WWI to pre-WWII. Around the time of the Bolshevik Revolution, a large portion was killed for having too close of ties with the Romanov family, and for taking advantage of the commoners. They incorrectly assumed that their social status would keep them safe. By the time that bolshevism fell out of style, anyone who remained was killed off for their radical support for empowering the commoners. Over just a couple of decades, a relatively vast family name was completely wiped out from a vast number of cities and villages. The only thing they all seemed to have in common with each other and those miles alongside them was their religion.
The Polish family either snuck out of Poland around the time that Nazism was becoming more popular, or died. One family member survived after their parents left them with some Catholic friends, and another two family members shockingly survived the concentration camps. My memories of one of them was how hard they’d cry when they’d see any portion of their numeric tattoo.
Now the living parts of the Ukrainian family live throughout the Americas, and believe that fascist leaders have redeeming qualities. Meanwhile, the Polish family is mostly in Israel and is mostly super-cool with Palestinian genocide. Imagine struggling so hard to survive, just for your offspring to perpetuate or promote the same shit that you escaped from.
You should really schedule a discussion praising Hitler and his buddies at your next family gathering…
My family gets upset when I reference Hitler and his buddies as the creative source material for our current sequel/reboot. The fact that our president had previously bragged about studying books by and about Hitler isn’t a problem, instead, it’s a problem that I bring it up.
The thing about the value of gold in a society is that it is only valued within the society. If society collapses, there will be no group or entity that could value it. You’d need to wait until people start rebuilding. But then you’d need to be in a position to shape how currency is decided on and minted. Unless you’ve kept your load of gold secret, it’ll be hard to convince people to adopt gold as a currency without starting on more even ground.
Ever since we found gold we have valued it. I don’t understand the position of, “Oh, no one will value it!” We love the shit and it’s a store of value. How much value is dependent.
Because it was found by people in society. It was given value within an established society. I’m not saying no one will value it. I’m saying that until there is an established society, it won’t hold value. Then if you do end up in a society, you need to sway them to adopt gold as a currency while keeping your gold stores secret.
I disagree. look at the failed states right now. USD and precious metals are the most valued means of trade.
To clarify, when people colloquially refer to “the collapse of society” they don’t mean that all forms of society would cease to exist, but refer to the failure of the nation state, or possibly the international order, and the long supply chains that go with it. Etc.
So society at various scales would still exist, in overlapping ways and jurisdictions. Basic units like neighbourhoods and firefighters and towns and regions would be organizing based on the old rules and adapting. People organize well in the absence of warlords, so that and extinction events are the threats to trade.
The value of trade goods might be indeterminate if a comet wipes nearly all of us out. Otherwise, many people love to dicker and argue about the value of things, so I’m pretty confident about rare raw materials like gold having both utility value and a reasonably inflated exchange value in a prolonged regional or international crisis.
The only things that will have value when society collapses are food, water, shelter, off-grid power, ammunition, and weapons.
Don’t forget “skills you can use to make yourself valuable to a small community”, especially the skills to grow and prepare food, locate and purify water, construct and maintain shelter, maintain and upscale off-grid power, and use ammunition and weapons.
Gold is not going to save you. I’d we get to the point that gold becomes currency again, that will be the least of your worries. Those are just prepper fantasies.
If you are considering investing in gold as an asset, sure that’s legit.
Look at the zoomed out 5 year chart for its price and you tell me.
$1,839 -> $4,217
Yes, but:
https://www.macrotrends.net/4534/cpi-purchasing-power-of-the-dollar
Gold is just another asset, it belongs in any long term portfolio at least to a small degree, and if you take the possibility of market instability seriously, you might consider keeping some actual metal on hand. Though silver is somewhat more practical for that.
Would you trust this guy’s advice?
I’d chop off my own dick if whatever thing is told me to do it
So much FUD and complete misinformation here. Gold, first and foremost, is a store of value and a hedge against inflation. It’s a terrible investment. That said, if you bought 10k worth of gold 5 years ago, you would now have 20k. Which is obviously a higher return than most savings products or some actual investments.
It’s a hell of a lot safer than BTC and if society does collapse, it will absolutely retain its value.
if society does collapse, it will absolutely retain its value
Why? It’s not inherently valuable beyond a handful of industrial/electronic uses. If society collapses, people are going to be trading in food, water and medicine, not worthless shiny metal.
Even at the basest level of society that we might fall back to, there will be a need for stores of great value in order to make larger trades. You can’t effectively trade large scale without it. Which might not be relevant right after a full system failure, but definitely afterwards.
Why? It’s not inherently valuable beyond a handful of industrial/electronic uses.
It has the precedent of societal agreement going back thousands of years longer than literally anything else besides food and prostitution. If the world started over from the stone-age, people would be using precious metals to represent value all over again. You don’t need it to make sense, you just need a social agreement, and that doesn’t happen with just anything that can fall apart or decay or be found easily.
If society collapses, then carrying around and securing gold is not safe at all.
It isn’t even safe today, but people still do it.
Depends on what you want to achieve.
It’s a hedge against inflation. So in times of high inflation and economic uncertainty it will do well.
Keeping a small amount in a safe in case the world goes to shit, well only after you have a pile of guns, ammunution and canned food.
It’s not a productive asset. If you buy stocks you’ll probably be better off in the long run.
That being said your investment portfolio should not be only one kind of investment and gold should probably be a part of it eventually.
Yeah but so is having any currency
