Heading into the 2026 midterm elections, there are some very big warning signs for Republicans in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.

The survey of 1,443 adults, conducted from Nov. 10-13 found:

  • Democrats holding their largest advantage, 14 points, since 2017 on the question of who respondents would vote for if the midterm elections were held today;

  • Trump’s approval rating is just 39%, his lowest since right after the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol;

  • A combined 6-in-10 blame congressional Republicans or Trump for the government shutdown; and

  • Nearly 6-in-10 say Trump’s top priority should be lowering prices — and no other issue comes close.

  • sylver_dragon@lemmy.worldEnglish
    12·
    3 days ago

    This is great, but the Senate seats up for election in 2026 make the Democrats winning a majority really, really tough. The current Senate is 53 Republicans, 43 Democrats and 2 Independents who caucus with Democrats. This means that the Democrats need to net +4 seats to gain control of the Senate. Sure, it’s possible but the map doesn’t look good.

    For example, the Democrats best pickup opportunity is likely Susan Collins’s seat in Maine. Despite Maine leaning Democrat in statewide elections, this is a rodeo Collins knows very, very well. Democrats have been trying to knock her off for several cycles and yet she’s still here. Maybe this will be the year. But, if this is the best opportunity for Democrats, we aren’t off to a good start.

    North Carolina is an open seat, which helps some. But, the State has consistently voted Republican in Statewide elections (and went for Trump by ~3 points in 2024). A large enough blue wave could overcome that, but it’s already an uphill battle. And things only get worse from here.

    Next up is Ohio, which Trump won by ~11 points. We aren’t talking super-hard MAGA land there, but Democrat friendly, it ain’t. This is the state which gave us Vice President JD Vance as a Senator. The election here is for the remainder of Vance’s term. Hope may spring eternal, but there is a really sketchy looking reality hiding around the next corner with a sock full of pennies.

    That takes us on to Iowa. This state was Trump +13 in 2024. Sure, some farmers may be pissed off about the tariffs, but enough to put a Democrat in the Senate? This seems to fall into the “time to put the bong down and reconnect with reality” territory. I mean, it’s always possible. With a really well calibrated Democratic candidate, the GOP picking a really flawed candidate and really poor economic conditions, maybe. But I wouldn’t be betting the farm on Democrats picking this one up.

    And then we need to consider defense. Jon Ossof is up for re-election in Georgia. Georgia went for Trump by ~2 points. Not a large margin, but enough that Osoff isn’t a shoe-in. And Michigan (Trump +1) is an open seat election. The previous Senator (Gary Peters) was a Democrat, so there is certainly hope, but again this isn’t a certain thing. If either of those seats are lost, Democrats are then looking at Texas (Trump +14. Also, it’s fucking Texas).

    I’m all for a Democratic Congress. But their chances in the Senate look pretty bleak.

    • OBJECTION!@lemmy.ml
      1·
      2 days ago

      That’s true, but it’s also true that this map may be the best shot they have to pick up seats. I don’t think I’ve ever heard someone say that a senate map looks good for Democrats. In 2028 they’ll have what, Arizona and North Carolina? Well, and the VP, potentially (and having to replace Fetterman). And in 2030, just Ohio and Pennsylvania? I don’t see any chance of winning Iowa but whether there’s even a remote possibility of them gaining a majority in future elections will depend on whether they can narrow to one or two seats here.

    • Optional@lemmy.world
      3·
      3 days ago

      I don’t.

      And I think the real point is we can’t let them. Because we’re all very reactive but not so much proactive.

  • kingofras@lemmy.world
    7·
    3 days ago

    Democrats can’t govern. A snail with freeze frames like Moscow Mitch successfully and singlehandely skewed the Supreme Court for decades. Show me ANY democrat that can do that, and I’ll change my opinion.

    We need a left Moscow Mitch to unrig all the rigging. Until that point, the Dems are just Shit Lite™

    Consolation prize to have a OAC, Sanders and Mamdani party block, with the same kind of “grassroot” funding and organising that Kirk did for Toilet Paper USA.

    I swear to god, if you see the incompetence on both the Dem and GOP side of politics today, Moscow Mitch is almost single handedly a political chess grand master.

    The democratic party failed, when Obama failed to hold big money responsible and place the people first, and strategically outsmart Mitch.

    My money is still on a violent overthrow and adding a couple of amendments to the constitution. America is in it’s Second Civil War right now, and elections mean nothing in war time.

  • danc4498@lemmy.worldEnglish
    5·
    3 days ago

    For reference, the opposing party always has an advantage during non presidential election years.

  • Asafum@feddit.nl
    4·
    3 days ago

    “What’s that!? It’s The Epstein Files off the top rope! Oh my God what a move! I think they call it “there’s only Democrats in the files other than a whole bunch of redacted!” They were looking strong until that move took them out!”

  • switcheroo@lemmy.worldEnglish
    2·
    2 days ago

    If that’s true, don’t blow it.

    No more status quo partisan bullshit. FIX THIS FUCKING COUNTRY