• grue@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    97
    ·
    edit-2
    3 months ago

    It is statistically impossible for life to exist on exactly one planet in the universe. Earth just isn’t that fucking special!


    Edit:

    A statistical impossibility is a probability that is so low as to not be worthy of mentioning. Sometimes it is quoted as 10−50 although the cutoff is inherently arbitrary. Although not truly impossible the probability is low enough so as to not bear mention in a rational, reasonable argument.

    https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/2049714/can-something-be-statistically-impossible#2049722

    If I’m wrong about the definition, at least I’m not wrong alone.

    • lauha@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      49
      ·
      3 months ago

      Life is certain to exist, but multicellular life is less likely and intelligent multicellular who reaches for the stars is even less likely

      • grue@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        31
        ·
        3 months ago

        Who said anything about multicellularity, intelligence, or space travel?

        Point is, Obama’s answer was vacuously true, and the only answer a non-idiot could reasonably could have given.

        …Okay, I admit he could have quoted Contact for extra style points:

        “The universe is a pretty big place. If it’s just us, seems like an awful waste of space.”

        But aside from that, the answer he gave was the only one he could reasonably have given.

        • Mouselemming@sh.itjust.works
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          13
          ·
          3 months ago

          Okay wait, listen to yourself. You expected Obama to give a reasonable answer, and of course he did. Gosh, wasn’t that nice? You might agree or disagree with his choices and priorities, but even his worst policies had SOME sort of reason behind them. And were stated in complete grammatical sentences that stayed in topic.

        • MIDItheKID@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          9
          ·
          3 months ago

          Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.

          Arthur C. Clarke

      • mrbutterscotch@feddit.org
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        3 months ago

        We don’t fit that description either though. We’re barely reaching for the stars. In terms of travel we’ve explored the equivelant of our front porch.

    • SendMePhotos@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      16
      ·
      3 months ago

      Earth is special. More special than most of the other planets that exist. But it’s not the only special one.

      • Karjalan@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        5
        ·
        3 months ago

        More special than ones we’ve detected, but our detection methods have a very biased available dataset.

    • Stern@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      9
      ·
      3 months ago

      If we presume a functionally infinite universe sure life pretty much has to exist in multiple spots. That’s a big presumption by itself though.

      After that, is said civilization on some dinosaur shit? Are they so far beyond us we look like cavemen in comparison? Are they looking around the universe and just missed us? Do we want them to find us? Historically humanity finds less advanced groups and kills, enslaves, or just robs them blind. No reason to think the alien conquistadors would be better then the Spanish ones.

      • bufalo1973@piefed.social
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        4
        ·
        3 months ago

        You are missing something: maybe the next “neighbor” civilization is in Andromeda or even farther. There is A LOT of space in the universe.

        • SpacetimeMachine@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          4
          ·
          3 months ago

          I would be very surprised if it was that far away to be honest. They estimate there are likely trillions of planets in our own galaxy now. For us to be the only one would be absurdly unlikely.

      • SpacetimeMachine@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        6
        ·
        3 months ago

        As far as the history of the universe is concerned we are actually super early on in its lifespan. So in some ways it’s actually more likely that we will be one of the early civilizations that perish before the others show up.

      • SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        3 months ago

        The problem is the human mind cannot understand the concept of how far one single light year is. Even Fermi struggled.

    • theherk@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      8
      ·
      edit-2
      3 months ago

      It isn’t. Check out this talk by Dr. Kipping. If you role 1000 x D6, you might say it is statistically impossible to role that number. And you’d be close to right; it was very unlikely. But you did role it.

      eta: The number of people supporting the phrase “statistically impossible” is troubling. This is why it is a problem that prominent scientists have made similar statements based on intuition. It isn’t based on statistics. We do not have sufficient data to make binary statements about Drake’s equation, nor even really to make any quantitative statements about the outcome, but certainly not binary ones.

      • grue@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        3 months ago

        Are “statistically impossible” and “extremely unlikely” not synonyms?

        • Iconoclast@feddit.uk
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          5
          ·
          3 months ago

          No. “Impossible” is an absolute statement, whereas “extremely unlikely” leaves a non-zero chance for the unlikely thing to actually happen.

          • grue@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            3 months ago

            I didn’t say “impossible,” though. I said “statistically impossible.”

            • Iconoclast@feddit.uk
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              4
              ·
              3 months ago

              Exactly. That’s why I corrected that it’s statistically extremely unlikely but not impossible.

        • new_world_odor@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          3 months ago

          No. Statistically impossible means that according to statistics it canNOT occur. Extremely unlikely means that in a given percentage of cases, it CAN occur.

    • AA5B@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      3 months ago

      Also statistically most likely that no life form has ever been able to leave its solar system, huge limited the opportunity to have detected each other