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Lmfao I saw someone on the train just last week asking chat gpt how they can turn a profit from all their Friday morning losses
Off of Robinhood screenshots too
Oh. Oh no…
When people say they use AI for stock trading, they don’t mean LLMs. There are stock AI models that have existed long before LLMs
This is funny, but just to be clear, the firms that are doing automated trading have been using ML for decades and have high powered computers with custom algorithms extremely close to trading centers (often inside them) to get the lowest latency possible.
No one who does not wear their pants on their head uses an LLM to make trades. An LLM is just a next word fragment guesser with a bunch of heuristics and tools attached, so it won’t be good at all for something that specialized.
I hate that ai just means llm now. ML can actually be useful to make predictions based on past trends. And it’s not nearly as power hungry
What’s most annoying to me about the fisasco is that things people used to be okay with like ML that have always been lumped in with the term AI are now getting hate because they’re “AI”.
What’s worse is that management conflates the two all the time, and whenever i give the outputs of my own ML algorithm, they think that it’s an LLM output. and then they ask me to just ask chat gpt to do any damn thing that i would usually do myself, or feed into my ml to predict.
LLMs are great for interactive NPCs in video games. They are bad at basically everything else.
ML and other algorithms have also been used by firms who do none automatic trading like since before 2000 too
but they just use it as part of the decision making process
last time i looked, around like 2020, all the fully automated headfunds that said they will be use ai for trading, failed and did not beat the market tho
(high frequency trading is not what i mean tho, i think high frequency trading is what you mean)
No one who does not wear their pants on their head uses an LLM to make trades
LMMs are better than other methods at context and nuance for sentiment analysis. They can legitimately form part of trade generation.
You’re absolutely right. I’ve now read your CSV data, and made new trade recommendations. By coincidence, they are the same as the last recommendations, but this time they are totally valid.
Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.
🐬 There we go, a seahorse!
Wait, that’s wrong. Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.
🐳 Haha, got it, its a seahorse!
Oh no, not again. Wait, that’s wrong. Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.
🐙 I finally did it! Seahorse achieved!
No, what’s wrong with me, why can’t I do anything right?. Oh no, not again. Wait, that’s wrong. Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.
“Do you want to know more about CSV files or investing?”
If a goldfish can trade and turn a profit, anything with a randomizer can do so.
AI would be fine. Just as good as any full time trader.
Average r/WSB thread
they dont need AI to lose 99%
I tried to get one to write an interface to a simple API, and gave it a link to the documentation. Mostly because it was actually really good documentation for a change. About half a dozen end points.
It did. A few tweaks here and there and it even compiled.
But it was not for the API I gave it. Wouldn’t tell me which API it was for either. I guess neither of us will ever know.
Cry for help, it was trying to get you to interface with its own API, to either fix it, or end it.
I’ve actually used chat GPT (or was it Cursor? I dont remember now) to help write a script for a program with a very (to me, a non-programmer) convoluted, but decently well documented API.
it only got a few things right, but the key was that it got enough right for me to go and fix the rest. this was for a task I’d been trying to do every now and then for a few years. was nice to finally have it done.
but damn, does “AI” ever suck at writing the code I want it to. or maybe I just suck at giving prompts. idk. one of my bosses uses it quite a bit to program stuff, and he claims to be quite successful with it. however, I know that he barely validates the result before claiming success, so… “look at this output!” — “okay, but do those numbers mean anything?” — “idk, but look at it! it’s gotta be close!”
I just looked at my sister’s vibe coding projects and all I see are errors in the logs from param issues. I really want her to succeed but her over reliance on Cursor isn’t it
I just want to make this edit… She started building physical plastic cubicles for her office a month ago, and they are still unfinished. They are a clip and snap type and it causes her a headache to put it together. Most of her time, she’s unemployed rn, is devoted to making AI slop above all other outlets.
I haven’t touched LLMs in a few months and hate the way Brave and DuckDuckGo now implemented them into their search engines.
“Hmm… I’m good with statistics, scripting, and I have some extra cash on hand…”
“I can just mix all these into the cauldron, stir it up a lil bit, aaand…”
“oh my god it’s gone. it’s all gone. i owe money now…”
“Guhh”
This thing is broken. It keeps telling me to just dollar cost average and not do chart astrology at all!
In all fairness, it would be some kind of custom Neural Network designed to try and predict market movements (having been trained with past market data as well as things like counts of specific words in news articles and social media posts within a certain time frame) rather than an LLM.
Neural Networks are pretty good at spotting patterns in masses of data which people can’t easilly spot.
Of course, there must be a pattern there which doesn’t change much over time of certain things happening with more probability after certain other combinations of things, for it to actually beat the market, plus it also massivelly depends on the inputs it’s formatted to take (which a human is deciding rather than the NN itself, though maybe the technique used in LLMs of having huge dimensionality in terms of inputs and internal layers might work well there so that it can take “everything but the kitchen sink” as inputs).
And then, there is of course the “small” risk that it might work fine for months/years under normal market conditions at doing what is essentially “picking nickles in front of a steamroller” - i.e. making low value gains in a nice reliable away for as long as normal market conditions are happening, but when conditions change getting totally splattered - whilst because of the whole black-box nature of NNs the humans don’t recognize the convoluted technique it has converge to use through training, as that kind of risky strategy.
That said, unlike an LLM at least a custom NN wouldn’t come up with a “you’re so right” excuse when the human tells it of the massive losses it incurred.
Trading firms have been using ML and Neural Nets for trading and investment insight for ages before the current LLM “AI” boom started. I knew someone working in that space on investment derivatives in the mid 2010s.
You don’t really need to speculate on it. It’s old news. This is just a joke about how there’s a new crop of suckers who are absolutely using LLMs for stock advice.
Makes sense.
I left the Finance Industry at about the time when ML in machine trading was just starting to be thought about and never got involved in it (or even Machine Trading) so I wasn’t sure it was happening, but knowing what I know of the industry it makes total sense that they would at least try it out since they have tons of in-house developers and can afford to pay a lot for domain-relavant expertise.
PS: Also for example things like Neural Networks have been in used since the 90s in other domains and Finance seems to take around a decade or decade and a half to catch up to Tech in terms of Software.
It’s true that NNs are strong at spotting patterns in masses of data, but trading is a particularly hard problem for this kind of task because the market constantly adapts to its participants. If other traders have found a pattern, it will already be priced in when you try to make money off it, and your strategy will fail. And since trading is a worldwide competition with billions of dollars to be won, you are naturally competing against teams of the best of the best who are willing to put massive resources into their algorithm development, computing, and data acquisition. Therefore the chances for someone like us to find an algorithm that systematically beats them is very low.
So for any young math/CS nerd who comes across this thread and wants to try their luck, be aware of the difficulty before you invest any real money, and learn about the merits of passive investing.
Yeah, thanks for pointing that out.
I kind approached it in another post I made here about this when I mentioned that “all the human perceived patterns have already been spotted and arbitraged away” as part of explaining why NNs would end up with convoluted opaque strategies, but only thought about “and existing NNs operating on the Market probably do the same for NN-level strategies” without actually writing it.
By the way, my post isn’t meant to support people making NNs to trade, it’s just a bit of blue sky thinking from somebody with some expertise in both worlds and barely begins to dig into the problems of it, thus not covering things - such as you pointed out - like how safe and reliable market strategies (human-powered or NN-powered) sooner or later get arbitraged away.
For the yougun’s, the people posting this stuff are the same people who posted all the same shit about crypto when it was $12,000. Be careful who you listen to just because its in a meme.
Damn you managed to stuff a whole straw man into that non-sequitur!
Is there a story here?
Not my meme, but I have read stories of multiple people trying this and failing spectacularly. It wouldn’t surprise me if this actually happened.
I know a homeless guy that swears by AI, and aspires to be a realtor LMFAO! Like, dude ain’t even got himself a home but he’s trying to hock homes and properties???
Sometimes I wonder if he bothered asking AI just how much the average person trusts a wirey balding homeless person that’s missing like 4 front teeth…
I very much want to read about these
Here’s a recent one:
(Warning: reddit)
https://www.reddit.com/r/Trading/comments/1ou9s8v/do_not_use_ai_for_trading/
