Russia is not planning on invading and conquering the whole Europe. The want to disrupt supply chains and divert resources going to Ukraine. Russia already has a lot of military on the borders with NATO (for example Finland). They are just sitting there not helping them win the war in Ukraine in any way. So Russia would like to:
Force NATO to gather more resources on their side of the border instead of sending them to Ukraine
Test if NATO members are actually willing to fight to defend each other (we know USA won’t)
Disrupt supply chains and destroy factories used by Ukraine
Crimea was overtaken by Russia without officially sending any troops. It was all done by some independent “mercenaries” that went there to protect Russian minority. (later Putin admitted it were in fact Russian soldiers)
NATO is worried same thing can happen in Latvia or Estonia: small number of “mercenaries” engaging with the tiny armies those countries have. Other worry is long range missile attacks on critical infrastructure. So far NATO members did not respond to drone attacks and terrorist attacks on their infrastructure. Russia is checking how far they can go and so far NATO let them do anything without any consequences. It’s clear Putin will keep escalating (why wouldn’t he?) and what everyone is saying is that EU should be ready for the next step: direct attack.
Putin doesn’t have to win it. He just has to divert enough resources away from Ukraine for it to pay off. Every drone that flies into NATO means more air defense systems in EU and less air defense in Ukraine. Same with everything else.
Russia is not planning on invading and conquering the whole Europe. The want to disrupt supply chains and divert resources going to Ukraine. Russia already has a lot of military on the borders with NATO (for example Finland). They are just sitting there not helping them win the war in Ukraine in any way. So Russia would like to:
Crimea was overtaken by Russia without officially sending any troops. It was all done by some independent “mercenaries” that went there to protect Russian minority. (later Putin admitted it were in fact Russian soldiers)
NATO is worried same thing can happen in Latvia or Estonia: small number of “mercenaries” engaging with the tiny armies those countries have. Other worry is long range missile attacks on critical infrastructure. So far NATO members did not respond to drone attacks and terrorist attacks on their infrastructure. Russia is checking how far they can go and so far NATO let them do anything without any consequences. It’s clear Putin will keep escalating (why wouldn’t he?) and what everyone is saying is that EU should be ready for the next step: direct attack.
Putin doesn’t have to win it. He just has to divert enough resources away from Ukraine for it to pay off. Every drone that flies into NATO means more air defense systems in EU and less air defense in Ukraine. Same with everything else.
That makes some sense of it. Thanks.