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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • Fact:

    Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to European diplomats: “China cannot afford a Russian defeat in Ukraine”.

    Supposition:

    The reason? Beijing reportedly fears that a vanquished Russia would allow the United States to shift its entire strategic focus onto China, a fear which is probably not unfounded given US President Trump’s openly anti-China rhetoric and policies.

    I fully support Ukraine, but I don’t agree with their guess at a reason for the statement from Minister Wang Yi. I’m thinking that China needs to cement the legitimacy of invading sovereign territories with ethnically similar populations so that China can get political cover when it wants to invade Taiwan. If China is successful in getting the world to accept some or all of Ukraine being held by Russia, then there will be no grounds for the world to oppose the invasion and capture of Taiwan by China.





  • “The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, officially the Treaty of Non-Aggression between Germany and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics,[1][2] and also known as the Hitler–Stalin Pact[3][4] and the Nazi–Soviet Pact,[5] was a non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, with a secret protocol establishing Soviet and German spheres of influence across Eastern Europe.[6] The pact was signed in Moscow on 24 August 1939 (backdated 23 August 1939[7][8]) by Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov and German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop.[9]” source












  • Those that argue in bad faith usually abandon consistency in the process. Because they don’t believe in the argument they are presenting, as soon as they are proven wrong they simply pivot to a new, and likely, contradictory argument. This often occurs because their real reason for their desired outcome is abhorrent (and they are aware of that) but they argue a different reason that would have the same outcome. This is prime red meat for racists and misogynists, as an example.


  • No, I wouldn’t call that diplomacy.

    This is why you and I aren’t diplomats.

    If the head of NATO is dependent upon the USA for lots of support to NATO, then it is in NATO’s interest for the head of the USA to like NATO. If you know the head of the USA is incredibly shallow and you can achieve that support simply by sending an email/text message which requires zero dollars, and at best, a bit of political capital, then its a good deal for the NATO head to do that.

    This is what is both fascinating and horrible about diplomacy and geopolitics. Its not about being “right” or “moral” in the moment. Its about getting what you want hopefully in service of the overall goal of of your interests. Sometimes that overall goal is “right” and “moral” in the case of NATO usually.