• Dookieman12@piefed.socialBanned
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    1 month ago

    My prediction:

    1. Investors continue to fuel demand, choking supply
    2. Plans to monetize LLMs don’t pan out
    3. Eventually, lenders call their margins
    4. Investors see the called margins and get spooked; demand fizzles
    5. AI companies desperately try to liquidate their positions. Seeing the price of components, there’s a rush to sell while prices are high.
    6. PC components flood the market
    7. Record high supply, record low prices
    8. PC gaming golden age
    • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      They aren’t PC components. They’re server GPUs.

      They don’t even have ROPs anymore. There was a time when the Nvidia P100/A100 could technically game, but that’s generations ago.


      FYI, during the crypto busts, Nvidia bought back GPUs and basically incinerated them to keep demand for new stuff up.

      …I’m pretty sure that’s what they will do again.

      • njordomir@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        It’s frustrating to see the tech industry take this path, because there were alternative paths that didn’t lead us here. We are in a selfish and shortsighted time.

      • yardratianSoma@lemmy.ca
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        1 month ago

        yeah, but chip manufactures are reducing output for consumer class products, so yeah, there are still PC components choked by AI’s current supremacy in the market.

      • mlg@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        SXM to PCIe adapters already exist hehe

        Not to mention my dumbass would chuck money at a whole server just to throw it in my home lab.

        • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          Its not trivial.

          Check the level1 forums, where some electronics gurus are trying to get a single adapter MI250X to even boot. The problem isn’t the adapters, but firmware that makes it difficult.

      • eleitl@lemmy.zip
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        1 month ago

        I see no problem if I can snag some generic Instinct accelerators, and a server to go. I’ve already got half a rack full.

    • frongt@lemmy.zip
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      1 month ago

      Just like how GPUs became cheap and plentiful after mining crypto became passé, right?

      • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        …They actually did.

        I got an AMD 7950 is a crypto bust. Then a Nvidia 980 TI in the next one, dirt cheap.

        Nvidia figured it out in the most recent bust though, and controlled supply fairly well.

        • boonhet@sopuli.xyz
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          1 month ago

          After the last crypto bust, prices stayed up though. They’re still way higher than before the last crypto boom.

          And nVidia, AMD, Intel all know better now than to overproduce consumer GPUs.

    • Prox@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      6 will actually be “RAM suppliers buy the stock in bulk and sell as refurbs, keeping prices up”

    • MimicJar@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      So you’re not 100% incorrect, but does it happen in 2027? 2028?

      Logistically it’ll probably happen eventually, but when?

      • ParlimentOfDoom@piefed.zip
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        1 month ago

        OpenAI is likely to be the first domino to fall that causes the whole bubble to pop. They’re burning over $10-15 billion a year in losses, and have shown that any attempts to scale only increase that burn rate. They’re running out of investor money to toss into the fire.

        And they just announced a last ditch free unlimited for everyone plan to…I dunno drum up interest or hope it converts to paying customers or something. So their costs are about to skyrocket even more, accelerating their death spiral