Airstrikes won’t be enough to wage war on the Middle East’s largest world power. Iran has hostile terrain with most of the population in mountainous areas. The ground war will be a bloody mess.

I’m waiting for the media to start promoting this war. Because war means ratings, but also to reduce public opposition to the draft which will certainly be needed.

If the U.S. joins in it will only escalate the situation. Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of the world’s oil transits, but has not taken any such action so far. However, the more desperate it is, the more likely that will occur. While oil prices have jumped a bit since the start of the war, currently ~$72 a barrel, if Iran blockades the strait (and presumably mines it), we’re looking at oil jumping to ~$130 per barrel. While the U.S. is currently teetering on the edge of a recession due to the tariffs, such an oil shock would almost certainly bring on a significant recession. Even more concerning is the potential for more escalation, and Trump has repeatedly shown interest in using nuclear weapons. I can easily envision a scenario where Trump thinks it’s a good idea to nuke Tehran to serve as a lesson for the world that he’s a big tough guy.