The difference between 100 million and 11.5 billion is about 11 billion. If you own a bank 11 billion that’s not only that bank’s problem, it’s the economy’s problem.
So I wondered a bit how much it actually affects the economy.
“S&P 500” companies’ market cap is about 57 trillion dollars with a P/E ratio of about 30. So openai by itself is dragging down the total s&p 500 earnings by only about 0.5%. The bigger problem is that there are multiple companies like openAI, and a large chunk of the entire economy’s valuation is tied to the promise that all the AI companies will somehow become profitable sometime soon.
When you put it that way, I’m actually kind of mad. Most of my retirement is in index funds, so essentially OpenAI just pissed away half a percent of my life savings in the last quarter!
The difference between 100 million and 11.5 billion is about 11 billion. If you own a bank 11 billion that’s not only that bank’s problem, it’s the economy’s problem.
So I wondered a bit how much it actually affects the economy.
“S&P 500” companies’ market cap is about 57 trillion dollars with a P/E ratio of about 30. So openai by itself is dragging down the total s&p 500 earnings by only about 0.5%. The bigger problem is that there are multiple companies like openAI, and a large chunk of the entire economy’s valuation is tied to the promise that all the AI companies will somehow become profitable sometime soon.
When you put it that way, I’m actually kind of mad. Most of my retirement is in index funds, so essentially OpenAI just pissed away half a percent of my life savings in the last quarter!
If OpenAI goes down then it will start a domino effect as people lose confidence in AI and AI companies. That’s how the bubble pops.
So it ALL depends on the definition of “soon”?
Probably
I was referring to the general concept behind the quote.
I originally want to post the OG (apocryphal?) variant:
But it sounds rather quaint these days.