Summary
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy, stated that Vladimir Putin has no intention of invading all of Europe, calling fears of broader aggression “academic.”
Witkoff expects progress in Ukraine-Russia talks, including a potential Black Sea ceasefire.
He acknowledged Russia’s view that occupied territories are rightfully theirs, citing disputed referendums.
The Kremlin hinted at more contacts between Trump and Putin than publicly disclosed, raising concerns among European leaders about a potential US-Russia peace deal.
I’m not sure Russia could conquer any reasonably-sized country at this point. Ukraine’s tenacity, resourcefulness, & drones plus western weapons has basically ensured that no matter what concessions Russia “wins,” it’ll be a Pyrrhic victory. It’ll probably take them a decade just to get back to where they were prior to the invasion.
According to independent estimates (that I just googled but seem fairly consistent across different sources from different countries), Russia has had almost 1,000,000 casualties and lost over 10,000 tanks. They’ve even lost a few T-54/55 tanks, which were designed in the 1950’s and stopped being produced in 1981. One report even said they were taking tanks out of museums and putting them back into service. (I couldn’t verify that but it’s probably not a good sign that any 40+ year-old tanks have been spotted on the battlefield.)
At this point, I’m less worried about Russia attacking an EU/NATO country than I am about Russia collapsing and all the regional instability that would follow.