Some interesting analysis from Mat Piscatella about the state of the industry.
- Exclusives aren’t driving console purchases anymore, as evidenced by Forza Horizon 5 most of all.
- Nintendo would likely benefit from this too, but they’re unlikely to do so anytime soon.
- It’s too early to predict any sort of success for Switch 2, as the numbers they’re seeing right now may be little more than the supply being great enough to reach their biggest fans.
- Overall demand for gaming hasn’t gone down and has stabilized. Those dollars won’t be distributed evenly, but the enthusiasts are showing up.
EDIT: And now Sony has a job listing for someone to head an initiative to bring more games to other platforms, including Xbox and Nintendo.
The Switch 2 has not sold 20M units yet. They just hit 5M, and they’re projecting they’ll sell 15M by the end of the fiscal year, which is by March.
But not for exclusives, not like they used to, which is the author’s point.
And Piscatella’s position is “maybe, but maybe not”. The Switch 2’s success in reaching those numbers is not a sure thing, and Nintendo’s games have enough appeal that they could be potentially reaching enough additional players that their method may not be the right call anymore. The point is a bit moot, because he also acknowledges that Nintendo is unlikely to change their ways anytime soon, but the possibility is there that they could make more money by going multiplatform. For Sony and Microsoft, that time has already come.
Whops, sorry about that. Didn’t mean to inflate it voluntarily. I remembered 3M from the first few days, then checked update sources, got numbers mixed up in my head and somehow came up with 20M. That’s surely a wild number lol
Thanks for catching that, would hate to spread disinfo like that.
No worries. The Wii U sold 12M units in its lifetime, which is surely the floor for how many the Switch 2 can possibly sell, and it will almost certainly beat that, but at $500 with looming tariffs, not to mention how the market has changed in the past 8 years, I’d be shocked if it approached an install base as large as the Switch 1.