Germany’s conservative leader has unexpectedly fallen short of the numbers needed to form a majority in parliament to become chancellor.
Friedrich Merz needed 316 votes in the 630-seat Bundestag but only secured 310, in a significant blow to the Christian Democrat leader, two and a half months after winning Germany’s federal elections.
Two and a half months, they weren’t joking about slow German bureaucracy 😱
Technically, there’s a two-week period during which he or others can try to be elected by absolute majority (316 of 630 votes). After that, the requirements would be lowered to simple majority.
So Merz may still be elected in a second vote. If he fails again, we will likely see a snap election, with the extremist right AfD gaining even more.
A big danger about a second vote could be the AfD voting for Merz for troll reasons. They’ve done this kind of thing before in the state parliament of Thuringia. If Merz got, say, 461 votes in a second vote, it would be obvious that he got the majority not from SPD + Union but by the votes of the AfD. This would trigger massive debates about whether the coalition partners should go ahead with government formation or not.
Another possibility is that of a different coalition forming, either Union + SPD + Greens (so including the Greens in the current planned coalition), or Union + AfD. While I could see the former happening in some scenarios (though probably with a different candidate from the Union), I think the latter will not occur at this point in time, as too many Union members and voters are still strictly opposed to cooperating with the AfD. (But I think it is a realistic scenario in future elections.)