Turkey and Qatar signed a mutual defence agreement Friday, pledging a unified response to any attack on either country, the two leaders said in a joint statement. The defence pact follows the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed by Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in August.
Turkey taking over for the US and Saudis as the main power broker in the region and they didn’t even have to do anything.
Both this and the more significant Mecca pact are ultimately the child of Israel bombing Doha and the US just sitting and watching it happen. Merely a week after that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan inked the SMDA that preceded the Mecca pact and the negotiations started rolling between these four countries (and to a lesser extent other parties like Egypt or even more distantly Indonesia).
These pacts are intended to counter Israel but the Iran situation is a big wrinkle. None of them wanted the war but now that they’re in it Iran’s way to pinch the US back has been to cause massive damage in other Gulf countries and block the strait; Saudi Arabia and Qatar are terribly vulnerable to that and can’t really respond back except by bombing back and they can’t really outbomb the US so what does that matter. But while Iran is happy to bomb overseas, it does NOT want to draw the ire of any country with a strong military that directly borders it since a ground force could actually oust them from power unlike all the bombing and anyone like that would be enthusiastically supported by the US. So Iran has been curiously light on Turkey, Pakistan and Azerbaijan (they have bombed Iraq a lot but they have strong influence there so that’s not as much of a concern). Meanwhile those same neighboring countries while strong enough actually do a serious blow to Iran DO NOT want to actually go to war because it would wreck their economy and stability and probably empower separatists. So they prefer a ceasefire ASAP.
By cooperating more strongly with Gulf countries, Turkey is opening itself up to more risk of getting further entangled in the Iran situation. Works well if Iran thinks twice against going on a course of action sure to mess with Turkey… but if Iran actually tests that, that could be very problematic for Turkey.


